AFLW · ROUND 7 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Fremantle
Sun 27 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ADE by 9
ADE to win, 64% chance
ADE 64%36% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 25
MISS Actual margin 25 · 33.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 116 | 100 to 132 | 77 to 155 | 98% | 94% | 86% | 75% | 59% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 79 | 65 to 94 | 45 to 114 | 67% | 48% | 33% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 75 | 61 to 89 | 42 to 109 | 59% | 40% | 26% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 73 | 59 to 87 | 40 to 106 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 73 | 59 to 87 | 40 to 106 | 56% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 60 | 47 to 72 | 29 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 59 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 59 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 57 | 44 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 27% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 75 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 43 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 42 | 31 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Lily Tarlinton | INT | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 31 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 27 |
| Ava Stewart | INT | 30 | 19 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 30 | 19 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 26 |
Fremantle
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiara Bowers | C | 110 | 94 to 126 | 72 to 149 | 97% | 91% | 80% | 67% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 126 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 96 | 81 to 112 | 60 to 133 | 88% | 77% | 61% | 42% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 87 | 72 to 102 | 52 to 122 | 79% | 62% | 43% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Aisling McCarthy | INT | 83 | 69 to 98 | 49 to 118 | 74% | 55% | 35% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 58 | 45 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 27 to 87 | 26% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 92 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFL | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 84 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Aoife Healy | WL | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | FPR | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | FB | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Bella Smith | HFFR | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Orlagh Lally | INT | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 42 | 31 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Holly Egan | HBFR | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | INT | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Indiana West | CHB | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Lily Johnson | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Indi Strom | INT | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 25 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Evie Parker | INT | 30 | 19 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |