AFLW · ROUND 7 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Fremantle
Sun 27 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ADE by 9
ADE to win, 64% chance
ADE 64%36% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 25
MISS Actual margin 25 · 33.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 69% | 25% | 13% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 0.8 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 43% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 43% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.3 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 30% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 25% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ava Stewart | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Tarlinton | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Fremantle
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eden Zanker | FF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 64% | 25% | 11% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | FPR | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 39% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 0.8 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 43% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bella Smith | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aisling McCarthy | INT | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Kiara Bowers | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aoife Healy | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Evie Parker | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Holly Egan | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Indi Strom | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Johnson | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Indiana West | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |