AFLW · ROUND 7 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Fremantle
Sun 27 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ADE by 9
ADE to win, 64% chance
ADE 64%36% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 25
MISS Actual margin 25 · 33.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 54% | 37% | 20% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 52% | 37% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 54% | 37% | 20% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 46% | 35% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 39% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 35% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 15% | 4% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 18% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 18% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 15% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ava Stewart | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 10% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Tarlinton | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Fremantle
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiara Bowers | C | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.8 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 40% | 23% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 38% | 23% | 12% | 4% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Aisling McCarthy | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bella Smith | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Aoife Healy | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Holly Egan | HBFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 16% | 6% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 17% | 4% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 12% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Indi Strom | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Indiana West | CHB | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Evie Parker | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Lily Johnson | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |