AFLW · ROUND 7 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Fremantle
Sun 27 Sep 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ADE by 9
ADE to win, 64% chance
ADE 64%36% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 25
MISS Actual margin 25 · 33.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.5 | 4.7 to 15.4 | 100% | 99% | 96% | 91% | 84% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 6.8 | 4.8 to 8.8 | 2.4 to 11.2 | 94% | 85% | 74% | 64% | 53% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 4.2 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 40% | 25% | 13% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 57% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 50% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 5% | - |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 52% | 32% | 19% | 8% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lily Tarlinton | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | - |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 56% | 35% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 19% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 37% | 22% | 10% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 32% | 18% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 32% | 19% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 38% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ava Stewart | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 15% | 10% | 4% | 1% | - |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Fremantle
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiara Bowers | C | 10.3 | 7.8 to 12.7 | 4.9 to 15.7 | 100% | 100% | 97% | 91% | 84% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RR | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.8 | 1.9 to 10.1 | 88% | 78% | 68% | 53% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | R | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.1 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 32% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Aisling McCarthy | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mim Strom | RK | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 68% | 49% | 38% | 24% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | WR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 61% | 41% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.8 | 46% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Aoife Healy | WL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 20% | 9% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | FPR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 26% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Madeleine Scanlon | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 13% | 7% | 5% | 2% | - |
| Sarah Verrier | HBFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Indiana West | CHB | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 38% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lily Johnson | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 37% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Holly Egan | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 17% | 11% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bella Smith | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Evie Parker | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Noa McNaughton | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 27% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Indi Strom | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 29% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgie Brisbane | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | - |