AFLW · ROUND 7 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Richmond
Fri 25 Sep 2026, 4:00pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 18
CAR to win, 78% chance
CAR 78%22% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 55
HIT Actual margin 55 · 37.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbie McKay | R | 22.8 | 19.2 to 26.4 | 13.9 to 31.7 | 94% | 73% | 37% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 21.9 | 18.4 to 25.4 | 13.2 to 30.6 | 92% | 67% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 21.6 | 18.1 to 25.1 | 12.9 to 30.3 | 91% | 65% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Mimi Hill | HFFL | 20.6 | 17.2 to 24.0 | 12.1 to 29.1 | 88% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | FPR | 18.5 | 15.2 to 21.8 | 10.4 to 26.6 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.5 | 10.1 to 26.3 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.0 | 8.3 to 23.6 | 61% | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 15.3 | 12.3 to 18.3 | 7.8 to 22.8 | 54% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFL | 13.1 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.2 | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 12.9 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 11.5 | 8.7 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Sophie McKay | INT | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 10.8 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.3 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Tayla McMillan | RR | 7.9 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Lauren Bella | INT | 6.2 | 4.1 to 8.4 | 1.0 to 11.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Aisling Reidy | INT | 5.6 | 3.5 to 7.6 | 0.5 to 10.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
Richmond
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 21.9 | 18.4 to 25.4 | 13.2 to 30.6 | 92% | 67% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | C | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.9 | 8.2 to 23.5 | 60% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 14.5 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 48% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.9 | 6.7 to 21.2 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.7 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 12.0 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.2 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.4 | 5.0 to 18.4 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | WL | 10.7 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | RK | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Beth Lynch | HBFR | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | R | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Paige Scott | CHF | 9.0 | 6.5 to 11.5 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Montana McKinnon | FB | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 8.8 | 6.3 to 11.2 | 2.7 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 7.0 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Ana Mulholland | INT | 5.7 | 3.6 to 7.8 | 0.6 to 10.8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | INT | 5.7 | 3.6 to 7.8 | 0.6 to 10.8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |