AFLW · ROUND 7 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Richmond
Fri 25 Sep 2026, 4:00pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 18
CAR to win, 78% chance
CAR 78%22% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 55
HIT Actual margin 55 · 37.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbie McKay | R | 84 | 70 to 98 | 49 to 119 | 75% | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 84 | 69 to 98 | 49 to 119 | 74% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 83 | 68 to 97 | 48 to 118 | 73% | 54% | 35% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | FPR | 76 | 62 to 90 | 43 to 110 | 60% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Mimi Hill | HFFL | 71 | 58 to 85 | 38 to 104 | 52% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 105 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 70 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 50% | 33% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 69 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 93 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 66 | 53 to 79 | 34 to 98 | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 27 to 87 | 26% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 84 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFL | 54 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Sophie McKay | INT | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 46 | 34 to 57 | 18 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Tayla McMillan | RR | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 80 |
| Lauren Bella | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 27 |
| Aisling Reidy | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 27 |
Richmond
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 83 | 68 to 97 | 48 to 118 | 73% | 54% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Isabel Bacon | C | 71 | 57 to 85 | 38 to 104 | 51% | 34% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Gabby Seymour | RK | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 27 to 87 | 26% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Dana East | INT | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 23 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 54 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 53 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 51 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 86 |
| Charli Wicksteed | WL | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 46 | 34 to 57 | 18 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Beth Lynch | HBFR | 44 | 32 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Montana McKinnon | FB | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | R | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Paige Scott | CHF | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 35 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 31 | 21 to 42 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Ana Mulholland | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 29 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |