AFLW · ROUND 7 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Richmond
Fri 25 Sep 2026, 4:00pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 18
CAR to win, 78% chance
CAR 78%22% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 55
HIT Actual margin 55 · 37.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 1.1 | 0.6 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 64% | 25% | 12% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | FPR | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 64% | 24% | 11% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 64% | 25% | 11% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie McKay | INT | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 43% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 46% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mimi Hill | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 46% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Aisling Reidy | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Abbie McKay | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tayla McMillan | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Bella | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Richmond
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 82% | 30% | 15% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | RK | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 39% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 25% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 46% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paige Scott | CHF | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 21% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ana Mulholland | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Beth Lynch | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Montana McKinnon | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |