AFLW · ROUND 7 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Richmond
Fri 25 Sep 2026, 4:00pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 18
CAR to win, 78% chance
CAR 78%22% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 55
HIT Actual margin 55 · 37.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 4.4 | 2.9 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.2 | 63% | 50% | 37% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 3.8 | 2.4 to 5.3 | 0.2 to 7.4 | 57% | 39% | 23% | 17% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | FPR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 40% | 23% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 16% | 6% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 36% | 18% | 6% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 15% | 4% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mimi Hill | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 15% | 4% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 18% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 18% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 18% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sophie McKay | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Abbie McKay | R | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tayla McMillan | RR | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aisling Reidy | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lauren Bella | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Richmond
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 47% | 35% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Beth Lynch | HBFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 37% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 24% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 18% | 6% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Montana McKinnon | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | R | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Paige Scott | CHF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 18% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ana Mulholland | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |