AFLW · ROUND 7 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Richmond
Fri 25 Sep 2026, 4:00pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 18
CAR to win, 78% chance
CAR 78%22% RIC
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 55
HIT Actual margin 55 · 37.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.2 | 2.1 to 10.6 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Abbie McKay | R | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.7 | 79% | 68% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 78% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | FPR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 76% | 57% | 47% | 32% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 33% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 10% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mimi Hill | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tayla McMillan | RR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 22% | 10% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 52% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 19% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lauren Bella | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aisling Reidy | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie McKay | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Richmond
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabel Bacon | C | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 85% | 73% | 56% | 42% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ellie McKenzie | RR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 75% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.1 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 32% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | HFFL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 7.9 | 77% | 62% | 49% | 32% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | HFFR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 36% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | R | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 57% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Paige Scott | CHF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Beth Lynch | HBFR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 46% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | WL | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 61% | 40% | 24% | 9% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | RK | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 46% | 26% | 14% | 7% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Katie Brennan | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 30% | 15% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | CHB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Stubs | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 38% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Montana McKinnon | FB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Baia Pugh | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 33% | 16% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caitlin Greiser | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Fina Dethlefsen | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ana Mulholland | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Laura McClelland | BPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Libby Graham | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |