AFLW · ROUND 7 · WINDY HILL
Essendon v West Coast Eagles
Fri 25 Sep 2026, 12:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WCE by 6
WCE to win, 60% chance
ESS 40%60% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WCE by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 4.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Prespakis | C | 27.8 | 23.9 to 31.7 | 18.2 to 37.5 | 98% | 92% | 72% | 39% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.5 | 11.7 to 28.5 | 86% | 54% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Maddison Gay | CHB | 20.0 | 16.6 to 23.4 | 11.6 to 28.3 | 85% | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | R | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.7 | 10.3 to 26.5 | 77% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.5 | 7.2 to 21.9 | 50% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Georgia Gee | WR | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | HBFR | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.8 | 6.6 to 21.1 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.7 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Mia Busch | INT | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | INT | 12.0 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.2 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFL | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.6 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Chloe Adams | HFFR | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Grace Belloni | FPR | 10.9 | 8.2 to 13.6 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 10.7 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | BPL | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | INT | 9.8 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | INT | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | WL | 9.6 | 7.0 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | HFFL | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 8.6 | 6.1 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
West Coast Eagles
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Roberts | RR | 25.5 | 21.7 to 29.2 | 16.2 to 34.8 | 96% | 85% | 57% | 24% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Isabella Lewis | C | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.1 | 11.4 to 28.1 | 84% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Charlotte Thomas | HBFR | 16.2 | 13.1 to 19.3 | 8.5 to 23.9 | 63% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Emma Swanson | HBFL | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.4 to 23.7 | 61% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jaide Britton | WL | 15.7 | 12.6 to 18.8 | 8.1 to 23.3 | 58% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Lucia Painter | FF | 12.9 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Courtney Rowley | R | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.7 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Charlotte Riggs | RK | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.3 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Abbygail Bushby | INT | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Kellie Gibson | WR | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Kayla Dalgleish | FPR | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Georgie Cleaver | CHB | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Isabella Shannon | INT | 10.3 | 7.7 to 13.0 | 3.9 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Keeley Skepper | HFFL | 10.2 | 7.7 to 12.8 | 3.9 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mia Russo | CHF | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Belinda Smith | BPL | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Amy Franklin | HFFR | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jessica Rentsch | INT | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.6 | 2.4 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Lauren Wakfer | INT | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Beth Schilling | FB | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.9 to 13.2 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Lakay | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |