AFLW · ROUND 7 · WINDY HILL
Essendon v West Coast Eagles
Fri 25 Sep 2026, 12:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WCE by 6
WCE to win, 60% chance
ESS 40%60% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WCE by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 4.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 69% | 25% | 13% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 64% | 25% | 11% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 57% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chloe Adams | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Belloni | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Gee | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Busch | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maddison Gay | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
West Coast Eagles
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amy Franklin | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 64% | 25% | 12% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lucia Painter | FF | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 56% | 20% | 9% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kayla Dalgleish | FPR | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 62% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Wakfer | INT | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Keeley Skepper | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 40% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kellie Gibson | WR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 46% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ella Roberts | RR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 26% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabella Lewis | C | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 25% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Russo | CHF | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Abbygail Bushby | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isabella Shannon | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Lakay | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlotte Riggs | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlotte Thomas | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Courtney Rowley | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Swanson | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaide Britton | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jessica Rentsch | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Belinda Smith | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Beth Schilling | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgie Cleaver | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |