AFLW · ROUND 7 · WINDY HILL
Essendon v West Coast Eagles
Fri 25 Sep 2026, 12:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WCE by 6
WCE to win, 60% chance
ESS 40%60% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WCE by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 4.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddison Gay | CHB | 3.8 | 2.4 to 5.3 | 0.2 to 7.5 | 57% | 40% | 24% | 17% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.8 | 55% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 37% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 23% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Gee | WR | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 15% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 23% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 18% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chloe Adams | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | R | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 12% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Belloni | FPR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | WL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mia Busch | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | HFFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
West Coast Eagles
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Roberts | RR | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 54% | 37% | 20% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Emma Swanson | HBFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 39% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Charlotte Thomas | HBFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 38% | 23% | 12% | 4% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Isabella Lewis | C | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lucia Painter | FF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Georgie Cleaver | CHB | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 35% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amy Franklin | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 15% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Belinda Smith | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Beth Schilling | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlotte Riggs | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jaide Britton | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 18% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kellie Gibson | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 23% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Courtney Rowley | R | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 18% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Abbygail Bushby | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lauren Wakfer | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isabella Shannon | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Keeley Skepper | HFFL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jessica Rentsch | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kayla Dalgleish | FPR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mia Russo | CHF | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Lakay | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |