AFLW · ROUND 7 · WINDY HILL
Essendon v West Coast Eagles
Fri 25 Sep 2026, 12:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WCE by 6
WCE to win, 60% chance
ESS 40%60% WCE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WCE by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 4.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Nanscawen | R | 6.8 | 4.8 to 8.8 | 2.4 to 11.2 | 94% | 85% | 74% | 64% | 53% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.2 to 8.7 | 84% | 69% | 53% | 35% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 4.6 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 75% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | HBFR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 53% | 40% | 24% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chloe Adams | HFFR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 53% | 38% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mia Busch | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 14% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Maddison Gay | CHB | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 57% | 38% | 23% | 8% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Grace Belloni | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 57% | 38% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Gee | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 39% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 22% | 8% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 37% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | BPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
West Coast Eagles
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Roberts | RR | 7.7 | 5.5 to 9.8 | 3.0 to 12.3 | 97% | 91% | 84% | 71% | 61% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Courtney Rowley | R | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 7.9 | 77% | 62% | 49% | 32% | 22% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabella Lewis | C | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.5 to 7.2 | 68% | 49% | 38% | 24% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lucia Painter | FF | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 64% | 49% | 33% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jessica Rentsch | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 65% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlotte Riggs | RK | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Keeley Skepper | HFFL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jaide Britton | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 13% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mia Russo | CHF | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Kayla Dalgleish | FPR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 53% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lauren Wakfer | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emma Swanson | HBFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 56% | 36% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Kellie Gibson | WR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlotte Thomas | HBFR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Amy Franklin | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Belinda Smith | BPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Lakay | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Abbygail Bushby | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabella Shannon | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 19% | 8% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Beth Schilling | FB | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 38% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Georgie Cleaver | CHB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |