AFLW · ROUND 7 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Hawthorn
Thu 24 Sep 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
HAW by 8
HAW to win, 64% chance
GEE 36%64% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 36
MISS Actual margin 36 · 44.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 26.6 | 22.7 to 30.4 | 17.1 to 36.0 | 97% | 90% | 64% | 30% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 25.3 | 21.6 to 29.1 | 16.0 to 34.6 | 96% | 84% | 55% | 23% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 24.1 | 20.4 to 27.7 | 15.0 to 33.1 | 96% | 80% | 46% | 17% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 20.0 | 16.6 to 23.5 | 11.6 to 28.5 | 85% | 54% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Amy McDonald | INT | 18.0 | 14.7 to 21.2 | 9.9 to 26.0 | 73% | 33% | 10% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.4 to 23.7 | 61% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | WL | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 32% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.0 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Kate Surman | CHF | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.3 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jasmin Stewart | INT | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.6 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.6 | 2.3 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 8.2 | 5.9 to 10.6 | 2.4 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Annie Lee | INT | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 8.0 | 5.7 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | HBFR | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.0 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Hawthorn
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliza West | R | 23.7 | 20.1 to 27.4 | 14.7 to 32.7 | 96% | 78% | 43% | 16% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.2 | 11.5 to 28.2 | 84% | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.5 | 10.9 to 27.4 | 80% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 15.9 | 12.8 to 19.0 | 8.2 to 23.5 | 60% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 15.6 | 12.6 to 18.7 | 8.1 to 23.2 | 58% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | C | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.3 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 13.1 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 13.0 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.0 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Keely Coyne | WL | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Laura Stone | INT | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | HFFR | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.3 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 8.6 | 6.1 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFL | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 8.0 | 5.7 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 7.1 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |