AFLW · ROUND 7 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Hawthorn
Thu 24 Sep 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
HAW by 8
HAW to win, 64% chance
GEE 36%64% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 36
MISS Actual margin 36 · 44.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nina Morrison | RR | 100 | 84 to 115 | 62 to 137 | 91% | 80% | 66% | 48% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 98 | 82 to 113 | 61 to 134 | 89% | 79% | 63% | 45% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 97 | 82 to 112 | 60 to 134 | 89% | 78% | 62% | 44% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Amy McDonald | INT | 70 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 50% | 33% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 69 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 65 | 52 to 78 | 33 to 96 | 38% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 94 | 32% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 62 | 49 to 74 | 30 to 93 | 29% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | WL | 57 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 27% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Kate Surman | CHF | 52 | 40 to 64 | 23 to 82 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 48 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Jasmin Stewart | INT | 40 | 29 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1 |
| Alexis Gregor | HBFR | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Annie Lee | INT | 35 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
Hawthorn
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Wales | RK | 88 | 73 to 103 | 53 to 124 | 80% | 64% | 45% | 29% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Eliza West | R | 87 | 73 to 102 | 52 to 123 | 79% | 63% | 44% | 28% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 75 | 61 to 89 | 42 to 109 | 59% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 64 | 51 to 77 | 33 to 96 | 37% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 64 | 51 to 77 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 93 | 31% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 62 | 49 to 74 | 30 to 93 | 29% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 26 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | C | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 51 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | HFFR | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Laura Stone | INT | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Keely Coyne | WL | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFL | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 35 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |