AFLW · ROUND 7 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Hawthorn
Thu 24 Sep 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
HAW by 8
HAW to win, 64% chance
GEE 36%64% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 36
MISS Actual margin 36 · 44.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 1.5 | 1.0 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 100% | 39% | 20% | 12% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 64% | 25% | 12% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 57% | 21% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | WL | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 39% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Kate Surman | CHF | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 42% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 39% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 43% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Amy McDonald | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmin Stewart | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Annie Lee | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Hawthorn
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 64% | 25% | 12% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 0.9 | 0.6 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 57% | 22% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 46% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 30% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 39% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Stone | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Eliza West | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Keely Coyne | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |