AFLW · ROUND 7 · GMHBA STADIUM
Geelong Cats v Hawthorn
Thu 24 Sep 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
HAW by 8
HAW to win, 64% chance
GEE 36%64% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 36
MISS Actual margin 36 · 44.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Geelong Cats
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nina Morrison | RR | 8.0 | 5.8 to 10.1 | 3.2 to 12.7 | 97% | 92% | 85% | 74% | 65% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | C | 7.2 | 5.1 to 9.3 | 2.7 to 11.7 | 96% | 88% | 78% | 71% | 56% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Amy McDonald | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 53% | 40% | 24% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 53% | 40% | 24% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kate Surman | CHF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 56% | 37% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | WL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 29% | 14% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 13% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jasmin Stewart | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 45% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 16% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nicola Stevens | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Annie Lee | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | FPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Hawthorn
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliza West | R | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.6 to 9.5 | 85% | 73% | 61% | 49% | 38% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 4.8 | 3.2 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 78% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | C | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 32% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 56% | 43% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Laura Stone | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 56% | 46% | 27% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 13% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 61% | 42% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 16% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFL | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 48% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 19% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Keely Coyne | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 17% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |