AFLW · ROUND 7 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v St Kilda
Sun 27 Sep 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 19
GCS to win, 79% chance
GCS 79%21% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 10.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | C | 29.0 | 25.0 to 33.0 | 19.2 to 38.9 | 99% | 95% | 78% | 46% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 38.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | R | 23.9 | 20.2 to 27.6 | 14.9 to 33.0 | 96% | 79% | 45% | 16% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | CHF | 20.3 | 16.9 to 23.7 | 11.9 to 28.8 | 87% | 56% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 20.3 | 16.9 to 23.7 | 11.8 to 28.7 | 87% | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | HFFL | 14.3 | 11.3 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.6 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Lily Mithen | WR | 14.2 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Havana Harris | FPR | 14.1 | 11.1 to 17.0 | 6.8 to 21.4 | 40% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Meara Girvan | FB | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 32% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Ava Usher | RR | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.2 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 11.7 | 8.9 to 14.4 | 4.9 to 18.4 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.7 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | BPL | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Georja Davies | HBFL | 9.5 | 6.9 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Elise Barwick | INT | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Annabel Kievit | CHB | 8.8 | 6.3 to 11.2 | 2.7 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFR | 7.9 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | INT | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Paige Price | INT | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.2 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Alannah Welsh | INT | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Ellie Veerhuis | INT | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Rhianna Ingram | INT | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.2 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Dekota Baron | FF | 6.8 | 4.6 to 9.0 | 1.3 to 12.2 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Tara Harrington | INT | 6.4 | 4.2 to 8.6 | 1.1 to 11.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
St Kilda
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 19.1 | 15.7 to 22.4 | 10.8 to 27.3 | 79% | 42% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | R | 18.9 | 15.5 to 22.2 | 10.7 to 27.1 | 78% | 40% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.5 | 9.4 to 25.2 | 68% | 29% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 14.4 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 47% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 14.1 | 11.1 to 17.0 | 6.8 to 21.3 | 40% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 12.7 | 9.8 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Molly McDonald | C | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Alana Gee | INT | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.3 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 8.1 | 5.7 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Kyla Forbes | FPR | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Nicola Xenos | INT | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | HFFR | 7.0 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Rene Caris | INT | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Chelsea Sutton | INT | 5.5 | 3.4 to 7.5 | 0.4 to 10.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 5.4 | 3.3 to 7.4 | 0.4 to 10.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Emmelie Fiedler | INT | 5.4 | 3.4 to 7.4 | 0.4 to 10.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 5.3 | 3.3 to 7.4 | 0.3 to 10.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Zoe Barbakos | INT | 5.2 | 3.2 to 7.2 | 0.3 to 10.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |