AFLW · ROUND 7 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v St Kilda
Sun 27 Sep 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 19
GCS to win, 79% chance
GCS 79%21% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 10.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Havana Harris | FPR | 1.4 | 0.9 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 85% | 39% | 20% | 8% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | CHF | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 70% | 30% | 15% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dekota Baron | FF | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 40% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alannah Welsh | INT | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ava Usher | RR | 0.5 | 0.3 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 42% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Elise Barwick | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 40% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Lily Quigley | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlie Rowbottom | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lily Mithen | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rhianna Ingram | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tara Harrington | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ellie Veerhuis | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Georja Davies | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Meara Girvan | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Paige Price | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Annabel Kievit | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
St Kilda
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 64% | 25% | 12% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 0.8 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 43% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 39% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Molly McDonald | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nicola Xenos | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kyla Forbes | FPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alana Gee | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Chelsea Sutton | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emmelie Fiedler | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rene Caris | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Barbakos | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |