AFLW · ROUND 7 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v St Kilda
Sun 27 Sep 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GCS by 19
GCS to win, 79% chance
GCS 79%21% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 10.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | C | 6.8 | 4.8 to 8.7 | 2.4 to 11.1 | 93% | 85% | 74% | 64% | 53% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | CHF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 77% | 61% | 48% | 32% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ava Usher | RR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 64% | 49% | 35% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 65% | 49% | 37% | 24% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | HFFL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 65% | 49% | 37% | 24% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 42% | 25% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Elise Barwick | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | - |
| Havana Harris | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 56% | 37% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paige Price | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Annabel Kievit | CHB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 8% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alannah Welsh | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 39% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lily Mithen | WR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Dekota Baron | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rhianna Ingram | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tara Harrington | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Georja Davies | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Meara Girvan | FB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 29% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ellie Veerhuis | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | - |
St Kilda
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 79% | 65% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nicola Xenos | INT | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 75% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 23% | - |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 74% | 57% | 47% | 32% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | R | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 69% | 49% | 32% | 16% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Molly McDonald | C | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | RK | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 55% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Alana Gee | INT | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emmelie Fiedler | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Rene Caris | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Guttridge | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 49% | 29% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 19% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | CHB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kyla Forbes | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zoe Barbakos | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Chelsea Sutton | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Maya Louvel-Finn | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Carys D'Addario | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Jade McLay | CHF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | INT | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |