AFLW · ROUND 7 · IKON PARK
Melbourne v North Melbourne
Fri 25 Sep 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
NM by 17
NM to win, 76% chance
MEL 24%76% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 31
HIT Actual margin 31 · 14.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 26.6 | 22.8 to 30.5 | 17.2 to 36.1 | 98% | 90% | 65% | 30% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Tyla Hanks | BPL | 22.1 | 18.5 to 25.6 | 13.3 to 30.8 | 92% | 68% | 32% | 9% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Kate Hore | FF | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.2 | 11.5 to 28.2 | 84% | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Maeve Chaplin | C | 18.8 | 15.5 to 22.2 | 10.6 to 27.0 | 78% | 40% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Jordyn S. Allen | CHB | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.2 | 8.4 to 23.7 | 61% | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | R | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.6 | 7.2 to 22.0 | 50% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | WR | 13.4 | 10.6 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.6 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | CHF | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.0 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Tayla Harris | FB | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.3 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | HFFL | 12.0 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.2 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | HBFL | 11.9 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | WL | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | FPR | 10.0 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.3 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | INT | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.1 | 3.4 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | INT | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Mia Austin | HFFR | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 6.0 | 3.9 to 8.1 | 0.8 to 11.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Alyssia Pisano | INT | 5.5 | 3.4 to 7.5 | 0.4 to 10.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jorja Livingstone | INT | 5.1 | 3.1 to 7.1 | 0.2 to 10.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
North Melbourne
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ash Riddell | RR | 29.5 | 25.5 to 33.5 | 19.6 to 39.4 | 99% | 96% | 80% | 49% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 33.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 27.8 | 23.9 to 31.7 | 18.2 to 37.5 | 98% | 92% | 72% | 39% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | C | 21.2 | 17.7 to 24.7 | 12.6 to 29.8 | 90% | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 18.7 | 15.4 to 22.0 | 10.5 to 26.8 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Emma Kearney | CHB | 16.3 | 13.2 to 19.5 | 8.6 to 24.1 | 63% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 15.6 | 12.5 to 18.7 | 8.0 to 23.2 | 58% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Libby Birch | HBFL | 14.0 | 11.1 to 17.0 | 6.8 to 21.3 | 39% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 13.5 | 10.7 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.7 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | WL | 13.1 | 10.2 to 16.0 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 13.1 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.2 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Tessa Boyd | BPL | 12.8 | 9.9 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jenna Bruton | HFFR | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | HFFL | 12.0 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.2 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | INT | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Vikki Wall | INT | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Taylah Gatt | INT | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 9.6 | 7.0 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Kate Shierlaw | FPR | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Emma King | INT | 6.2 | 4.0 to 8.3 | 0.9 to 11.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |