AFLW · ROUND 7 · IKON PARK
Melbourne v North Melbourne
Fri 25 Sep 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
NM by 17
NM to win, 76% chance
MEL 24%76% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 31
HIT Actual margin 31 · 14.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 96 | 81 to 112 | 60 to 133 | 88% | 77% | 61% | 42% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Tyla Hanks | BPL | 88 | 74 to 103 | 53 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 46% | 29% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 110 |
| Kate Hore | FF | 84 | 69 to 98 | 49 to 118 | 74% | 56% | 35% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Maeve Chaplin | C | 73 | 59 to 86 | 40 to 106 | 55% | 38% | 20% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | R | 66 | 52 to 79 | 34 to 98 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 20 |
| Jordyn S. Allen | CHB | 62 | 49 to 75 | 30 to 93 | 30% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Tayla Harris | FB | 60 | 47 to 72 | 29 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | WR | 59 | 46 to 72 | 29 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Tahlia Gillard | CHF | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 57 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 27% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | FPR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Sarah Lampard | HFFL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Molly O'Hehir | WL | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Paxy Paxman | HBFL | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Maggie Mahony | INT | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Alyssa Bannan | INT | 43 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Mia Austin | HFFR | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 70 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 37 | 26 to 47 | 10 to 63 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Alyssia Pisano | INT | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 32 | 22 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23 |
| Jorja Livingstone | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23 |
North Melbourne
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Garner | R | 109 | 93 to 125 | 70 to 147 | 96% | 89% | 79% | 64% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 118 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 106 | 91 to 122 | 68 to 144 | 95% | 87% | 77% | 60% | 43% | inside our 50% range: 112 |
| Eilish Sheerin | C | 86 | 71 to 100 | 50 to 121 | 77% | 60% | 40% | 24% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 106 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 70 | 56 to 84 | 37 to 102 | 50% | 33% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 66 | 53 to 80 | 34 to 99 | 41% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 62 | 49 to 75 | 30 to 93 | 30% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Emma Kearney | CHB | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | HFFL | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Libby Birch | HBFL | 54 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Vikki Wall | INT | 51 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Jenna Bruton | HFFR | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 103 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | WL | 51 | 38 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Kate Shierlaw | FPR | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Tessa Boyd | BPL | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Eliza Shannon | INT | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Taylah Gatt | INT | 44 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15 |
| Emma King | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13 |