AFLW · ROUND 7 · IKON PARK
Melbourne v North Melbourne
Fri 25 Sep 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
NM by 17
NM to win, 76% chance
MEL 24%76% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 31
HIT Actual margin 31 · 14.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyla Hanks | BPL | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.2 | 2.1 to 10.5 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.8 to 10.0 | 88% | 77% | 65% | 53% | 43% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | R | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.4 | 1.6 to 9.6 | 85% | 74% | 64% | 49% | 39% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | WR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 56% | 45% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Kate Hore | FF | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 55% | 41% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | INT | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 55% | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Maeve Chaplin | C | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 57% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | WL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 21% | 10% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 57% | 38% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jordyn S. Allen | CHB | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 56% | 35% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | CHF | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tayla Harris | FB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 37% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mia Austin | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Alyssia Pisano | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jorja Livingstone | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | HFFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
North Melbourne
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eilish Sheerin | C | 6.4 | 4.5 to 8.4 | 2.2 to 10.7 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.4 to 9.2 | 84% | 71% | 56% | 40% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 74% | 56% | 44% | 31% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Vikki Wall | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 59% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 48% | 31% | 15% | 10% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 57% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Taylah Gatt | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Libby Birch | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 27% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emma Kearney | CHB | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tessa Boyd | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | - |
| Eliza Shannon | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kate Shierlaw | FPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emma King | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |