AFLW · ROUND 7 · HENSON PARK
Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions
Sun 27 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 8
BRI to win, 63% chance
SYD 37%63% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 14
MISS Actual margin 14 · 22.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | C | 25.6 | 21.8 to 29.4 | 16.3 to 34.9 | 96% | 85% | 57% | 24% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 20.3 | 16.8 to 23.7 | 11.8 to 28.7 | 87% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Montana Ham | RR | 20.0 | 16.6 to 23.4 | 11.6 to 28.4 | 85% | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Tanya Kennedy | INT | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.9 | 8.2 to 23.4 | 60% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | R | 15.2 | 12.2 to 18.3 | 7.7 to 22.7 | 54% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | FF | 15.1 | 12.1 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.6 | 53% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Darcy Moloney | INT | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Cynthia Hamilton | CHF | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.4 | 4.3 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | HBFR | 10.8 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Emma Juneja | INT | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Imogen Brown | WR | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Taylor Smith | FPR | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | BPL | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | HFFL | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.6 | 2.3 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFR | 7.9 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jas Grierson | INT | 7.9 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ash Van Loon | FB | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 6.9 | 4.6 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | INT | 6.5 | 4.3 to 8.6 | 1.1 to 11.8 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Indiana Williams | INT | 5.9 | 3.8 to 8.0 | 0.7 to 11.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Amelia Martin | INT | 5.5 | 3.5 to 7.6 | 0.5 to 10.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
Brisbane Lions
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Anderson | C | 24.7 | 21.0 to 28.4 | 15.5 to 33.8 | 96% | 82% | 50% | 19% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 21.5 | 18.0 to 25.0 | 12.9 to 30.2 | 91% | 65% | 27% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.5 | 11.7 to 28.5 | 86% | 54% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Charlotte Mullins | CHF | 18.2 | 14.9 to 21.4 | 10.1 to 26.2 | 75% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Sophie Conway | HFFL | 16.2 | 13.1 to 19.3 | 8.5 to 23.9 | 63% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.9 | 8.2 to 23.4 | 60% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 14.5 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 48% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 14.0 | 11.0 to 16.9 | 6.7 to 21.2 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.3 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 10.9 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Shanae Davison | WL | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.5 to 16.1 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Marlo Graham | INT | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Sophie Peters | HBFR | 9.0 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 8.6 | 6.1 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 8.1 | 5.7 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Dakota Davidson | FF | 8.1 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FPR | 7.8 | 5.4 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 7.0 | 4.7 to 9.2 | 1.4 to 12.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Lilly Baker | INT | 5.9 | 3.8 to 8.0 | 0.7 to 11.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Madison Evans | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.9 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Evie Long | INT | 5.6 | 3.5 to 7.7 | 0.5 to 10.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 5.3 | 3.3 to 7.3 | 0.3 to 10.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |