AFLW · ROUND 7 · HENSON PARK
Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions
Sun 27 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 8
BRI to win, 63% chance
SYD 37%63% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 14
MISS Actual margin 14 · 22.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | C | 96 | 81 to 111 | 59 to 133 | 88% | 77% | 60% | 41% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Montana Ham | RR | 79 | 65 to 94 | 45 to 114 | 67% | 49% | 33% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 77 | 63 to 91 | 43 to 111 | 61% | 43% | 29% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 73 | 59 to 87 | 40 to 106 | 56% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Tanya Kennedy | INT | 71 | 58 to 85 | 38 to 104 | 52% | 34% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Chloe Molloy | FF | 68 | 54 to 81 | 35 to 100 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Lucy McEvoy | R | 64 | 51 to 77 | 32 to 96 | 37% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Taylor Smith | FPR | 52 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | CHF | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 77 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 47 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Lara Hausegger | HBFR | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Emma Juneja | INT | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Paris McCarthy | HFFL | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Darcy Moloney | INT | 41 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Imogen Brown | WR | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFR | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | BPL | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 26 |
| Ash Van Loon | FB | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Jas Grierson | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Maddie Quinn | INT | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Amelia Martin | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21 |
| Indiana Williams | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
Brisbane Lions
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Anderson | C | 94 | 79 to 110 | 58 to 131 | 86% | 75% | 57% | 38% | 24% | outside our 90% range: 50 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 84 | 69 to 98 | 49 to 118 | 74% | 56% | 35% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 73 | 59 to 87 | 40 to 106 | 56% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Charlotte Mullins | CHF | 72 | 58 to 86 | 39 to 105 | 54% | 36% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 69 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 48% | 33% | 14% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Sophie Conway | HFFL | 67 | 54 to 80 | 35 to 99 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 48 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Dakota Davidson | FF | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 74 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Shanae Davison | WL | 43 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Marlo Graham | INT | 40 | 28 to 51 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Sophie Peters | HBFR | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FPR | 38 | 27 to 49 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 31 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Evie Long | INT | 29 | 19 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Lilly Baker | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Madison Evans | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |