AFLW · ROUND 7 · HENSON PARK
Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions
Sun 27 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 8
BRI to win, 63% chance
SYD 37%63% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 14
MISS Actual margin 14 · 22.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ally Morphett | RK | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 54% | 37% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | FF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 46% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 38% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Montana Ham | RR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 36% | 18% | 6% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Taylor Smith | FPR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | R | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 12% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Laura Gardiner | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 12% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Imogen Brown | WR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Juneja | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jas Grierson | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Darcy Moloney | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 10% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Holly Cooper | HFFR | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Amelia Martin | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Indiana Williams | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Julie O'Sullivan | BPL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tanya Kennedy | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
Brisbane Lions
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.0 to 6.9 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 40% | 23% | 15% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlotte Mullins | CHF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 46% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 38% | 23% | 10% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Conway | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alexandra Anderson | C | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dakota Davidson | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 23% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 23% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shanae Davison | WL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 10% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Evie Long | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lilly Baker | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Madison Evans | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Marlo Graham | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Peters | HBFR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |