AFLW · ROUND 7 · HENSON PARK
Sydney Swans v Brisbane Lions
Sun 27 Sep 2026, 3:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 8
BRI to win, 63% chance
SYD 37%63% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 14
MISS Actual margin 14 · 22.0 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | C | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.4 | 2.2 to 10.7 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Tanya Kennedy | INT | 6.1 | 4.2 to 8.0 | 2.0 to 10.3 | 91% | 79% | 71% | 56% | 46% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Montana Ham | RR | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.2 to 8.8 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 37% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | R | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 72% | 56% | 46% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 72% | 56% | 46% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 55% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Imogen Brown | WR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 56% | 37% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | FF | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 61% | 40% | 24% | 9% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 49% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | FB | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | HBFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Taylor Smith | FPR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 52% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | BPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 37% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emma Juneja | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amelia Martin | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Moloney | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Indiana Williams | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Jas Grierson | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | - |
Brisbane Lions
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Anderson | C | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.4 | 2.2 to 10.8 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 9.0 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 40% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.3 to 8.8 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.4 | 71% | 55% | 42% | 27% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Sophie Conway | HFFL | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 55% | 41% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlotte Mullins | CHF | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 55% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Marlo Graham | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 5% | - |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Peters | HBFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 52% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Shanae Davison | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dakota Davidson | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lilly Baker | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 30% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Madison Evans | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 29% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Evie Long | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |