AFLW · ROUND 8 · BRIGHTON HOMES ARENA
Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 3 Oct 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 26
BRI to win, 85% chance
BRI 85%15% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 20
MISS Actual margin 20 · 45.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Anderson | C | 24.5 | 20.8 to 28.2 | 15.4 to 33.7 | 96% | 82% | 49% | 19% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 21.5 | 18.0 to 25.0 | 12.8 to 30.1 | 91% | 65% | 27% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 20.2 | 16.8 to 23.6 | 11.7 to 28.6 | 86% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Sophie Conway | HFFL | 16.5 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.7 to 24.2 | 65% | 25% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 15.8 | 12.8 to 18.9 | 8.2 to 23.5 | 60% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.6 | 7.2 to 21.9 | 50% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 14.1 | 11.1 to 17.0 | 6.8 to 21.4 | 40% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 13.1 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Marlo Graham | CHF | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.1 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Shanae Davison | WL | 9.9 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.3 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Sophie Peters | HBFR | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Dakota Davidson | FF | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 8.1 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FPR | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 7.1 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Evie Long | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.9 | 0.6 to 10.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 5.4 | 3.4 to 7.5 | 0.4 to 10.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | C | 28.5 | 24.5 to 32.4 | 18.7 to 38.2 | 99% | 94% | 76% | 42% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 36.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | R | 23.6 | 20.0 to 27.3 | 14.6 to 32.6 | 95% | 78% | 42% | 15% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | CHF | 19.9 | 16.5 to 23.3 | 11.5 to 28.2 | 85% | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 19.8 | 16.5 to 23.2 | 11.5 to 28.2 | 84% | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | RR | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 50% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Lily Mithen | WR | 14.0 | 11.1 to 16.9 | 6.7 to 21.2 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Havana Harris | FPR | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.9 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Meara Girvan | FB | 13.0 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.0 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFL | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | FF | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | BPL | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 9.8 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Mia Salisbury | HBFL | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Annabel Kievit | CHB | 8.5 | 6.1 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Georja Davies | INT | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Dekota Baron | HFFR | 6.5 | 4.3 to 8.7 | 1.1 to 11.8 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | INT | 6.5 | 4.3 to 8.7 | 1.1 to 11.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Paige Price | INT | 6.5 | 4.3 to 8.6 | 1.1 to 11.8 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Alannah Welsh | INT | 6.1 | 4.0 to 8.3 | 0.9 to 11.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tara Harrington | INT | 5.3 | 3.2 to 7.3 | 0.3 to 10.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |