AFLW · ROUND 8 · BRIGHTON HOMES ARENA
Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 3 Oct 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 26
BRI to win, 85% chance
BRI 85%15% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 20
MISS Actual margin 20 · 45.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Anderson | C | 95 | 80 to 110 | 59 to 132 | 87% | 76% | 59% | 39% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 85 | 70 to 99 | 50 to 120 | 76% | 58% | 38% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 41 to 107 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 70 | 57 to 84 | 38 to 103 | 50% | 33% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Sophie Conway | HFFL | 68 | 54 to 81 | 36 to 100 | 43% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 93 | 32% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 54 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 84 | 21% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Dakota Davidson | FF | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14 |
| Marlo Graham | CHF | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Shanae Davison | WL | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Sophie Peters | HBFR | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FPR | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 31 | 21 to 41 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Evie Long | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5 |
Gold Coast SUNS
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | C | 102 | 87 to 118 | 65 to 140 | 93% | 83% | 71% | 52% | 35% | inside our 90% range: 130 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | R | 81 | 67 to 96 | 47 to 116 | 71% | 52% | 32% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Anne Hatchard | CHF | 79 | 64 to 93 | 45 to 113 | 65% | 47% | 32% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 96 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 71 | 57 to 84 | 38 to 104 | 51% | 33% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Havana Harris | FPR | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 94 | 33% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 96 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | RR | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Lily Mithen | WR | 52 | 40 to 64 | 23 to 82 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 15 |
| Ava Usher | HFFL | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 90 |
| Meara Girvan | FB | 47 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Sunny Lappin | FF | 43 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 38 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | BPL | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Annabel Kievit | CHB | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Mia Salisbury | HBFL | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Alannah Welsh | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Georja Davies | INT | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Dekota Baron | HFFR | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Paige Price | INT | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Heidi Talbot | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 69 |
| Tara Harrington | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |