AFLW · ROUND 8 · BRIGHTON HOMES ARENA
Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 3 Oct 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
BRI by 26
BRI to win, 85% chance
BRI 85%15% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GCS by 20
MISS Actual margin 20 · 45.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Anderson | C | 6.6 | 4.7 to 8.6 | 2.3 to 11.0 | 92% | 84% | 73% | 62% | 49% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 5.2 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.0 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 40% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 56% | 46% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie Conway | HFFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 56% | 44% | 27% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 37% | 24% | 11% | 7% | - |
| Marlo Graham | CHF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | - |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 46% | 26% | 14% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sophie Peters | HBFR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 10% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 38% | 19% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 27% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shanae Davison | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dakota Davidson | FF | 2.0 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 17% | 11% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Evie Long | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Rania Crozier | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | C | 6.7 | 4.7 to 8.7 | 2.4 to 11.1 | 93% | 85% | 74% | 64% | 53% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | CHF | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.8 to 7.9 | 77% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | RR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 76% | 57% | 47% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 64% | 49% | 33% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Havana Harris | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 57% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | R | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 27% | 11% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Annabel Kievit | CHB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | - |
| Paige Price | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 46% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alannah Welsh | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bronte Parker | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Lily Mithen | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dekota Baron | HFFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tara Harrington | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Georja Davies | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Meara Girvan | FB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mia Salisbury | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Sunny Lappin | FF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 27% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |