AFLW · ROUND 8 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Hawthorn
Thu 1 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 8
CAR to win, 64% chance
CAR 64%36% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 12
HIT Actual margin 12 · 3.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbie McKay | R | 22.9 | 19.3 to 26.5 | 14.0 to 31.8 | 94% | 73% | 38% | 12% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 22.4 | 18.8 to 25.9 | 13.6 to 31.2 | 93% | 70% | 34% | 10% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 22.0 | 18.5 to 25.6 | 13.3 to 30.8 | 92% | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 21.8 | 18.3 to 25.3 | 13.1 to 30.5 | 92% | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | HFFL | 19.0 | 15.6 to 22.3 | 10.7 to 27.2 | 78% | 41% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 18.6 | 15.3 to 21.9 | 10.5 to 26.7 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.4 to 23.7 | 61% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 15.5 | 12.4 to 18.6 | 8.0 to 23.1 | 56% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFL | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.2 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 5.9 to 20.0 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sophie McKay | FPR | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.2 | 29% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Lila Keck | INT | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.3 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 7.1 | 4.9 to 9.4 | 1.6 to 12.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Lauren Bella | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Hawthorn
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliza West | R | 23.5 | 19.9 to 27.2 | 14.5 to 32.5 | 95% | 77% | 42% | 15% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.5 | 10.9 to 27.4 | 80% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 18.9 | 15.5 to 22.2 | 10.7 to 27.1 | 78% | 40% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.3 | 52% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 14.5 | 11.5 to 17.5 | 7.2 to 21.9 | 48% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 14.1 | 11.1 to 17.0 | 6.8 to 21.3 | 39% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | C | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 12.9 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.3 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 11.5 | 8.7 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Keely Coyne | WL | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Laura Stone | INT | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | HFFR | 9.6 | 7.0 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFL | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.1 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.0 | 2.0 to 13.4 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |