AFLW · ROUND 8 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Hawthorn
Thu 1 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 8
CAR to win, 64% chance
CAR 64%36% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 12
HIT Actual margin 12 · 3.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbie McKay | R | 83 | 69 to 98 | 48 to 118 | 74% | 55% | 35% | 20% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 116 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 83 | 69 to 98 | 48 to 118 | 73% | 55% | 35% | 20% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 82 | 68 to 96 | 48 to 117 | 72% | 52% | 33% | 19% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | HFFL | 76 | 62 to 90 | 42 to 109 | 59% | 41% | 27% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 75 | 61 to 89 | 42 to 108 | 59% | 40% | 26% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 69 | 56 to 82 | 36 to 101 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 69 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 101 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 65 | 52 to 78 | 33 to 97 | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Lily Goss | INT | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 23 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFL | 53 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Sophie McKay | FPR | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Lila Keck | INT | 42 | 31 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Lauren Bella | INT | 34 | 23 to 45 | 8 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 25 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 59 |
Hawthorn
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliza West | R | 88 | 74 to 103 | 53 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 46% | 29% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 87 | 72 to 102 | 52 to 122 | 79% | 62% | 43% | 27% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 72 | 58 to 86 | 39 to 105 | 54% | 36% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 63 | 50 to 76 | 32 to 94 | 36% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 60 | 48 to 73 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | C | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 53 | 41 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | HFFR | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Laura Stone | INT | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Keely Coyne | WL | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 42 | 31 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFL | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 74 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 49 |