AFLW · ROUND 8 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Hawthorn
Thu 1 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 8
CAR to win, 64% chance
CAR 64%36% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 12
HIT Actual margin 12 · 3.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 64% | 23% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 46% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 55% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie McKay | FPR | 0.9 | 0.6 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 57% | 22% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 43% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lila Keck | INT | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 15% | 5% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Abbie McKay | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Bella | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Hawthorn
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 64% | 25% | 11% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 39% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 55% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Stone | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Eliza West | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Keely Coyne | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |