AFLW · ROUND 8 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Hawthorn
Thu 1 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 8
CAR to win, 64% chance
CAR 64%36% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 12
HIT Actual margin 12 · 3.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.3 | 67% | 54% | 37% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.3 | 57% | 38% | 23% | 15% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | HFFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 46% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 23% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 2% | - |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie McKay | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 16% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 20% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 16% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lila Keck | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 10% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 1.4 | 0.4 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Abbie McKay | R | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lauren Bella | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 10% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Hawthorn
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.5 | 58% | 46% | 27% | 20% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.3 | 57% | 38% | 23% | 15% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 7.0 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 15% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eliza West | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Keely Coyne | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 12% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Stone | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |