AFLW · ROUND 8 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Hawthorn
Thu 1 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 8
CAR to win, 64% chance
CAR 64%36% HAW
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 12
HIT Actual margin 12 · 3.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 6.3 | 4.4 to 8.2 | 2.1 to 10.5 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Abbie McKay | R | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.7 | 79% | 68% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | HFFL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 7.9 | 77% | 62% | 49% | 32% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 57% | 46% | 28% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 14% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 59% | 38% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | HBFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 49% | 32% | 17% | 8% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Lila Keck | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 7% | - |
| Poppy Scholz | CHF | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | CHB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | - |
| Lauren Bella | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sophie McKay | FPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | - |
Hawthorn
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliza West | R | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.7 to 9.7 | 85% | 74% | 64% | 49% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | C | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 7.9 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 23% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.4 | 71% | 56% | 42% | 27% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | RR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 56% | 42% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Laura Stone | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 68% | 49% | 32% | 16% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 70% | 49% | 32% | 18% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 65% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tamara Smith | BPL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 62% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Mackenzie Eardley | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mikaylah Antony | HFFL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 56% | 32% | 21% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 42% | 25% | 13% | 7% | 2% | - |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 26% | 12% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Keely Coyne | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | - |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 15% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |