AFLW · ROUND 8 · VICTORIA PARK
Collingwood v Melbourne
Sun 4 Oct 2026, 3:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 35
MEL to win, 92% chance
COL 8%92% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 21
HIT Actual margin 21 · 14.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.5 | 10.9 to 27.4 | 80% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Tarni White | WL | 18.9 | 15.6 to 22.2 | 10.7 to 27.1 | 78% | 40% | 13% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 17.8 | 14.6 to 21.1 | 9.8 to 25.8 | 72% | 32% | 10% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | CHB | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | HBFR | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Ashley Centra | R | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | INT | 13.2 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.3 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.3 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ruby Schleicher | FF | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.4 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HFFL | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | FB | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | C | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.2 | 2.8 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Eliza James | HBFL | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.0 | 2.0 to 13.5 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Olivia Lewis | CHF | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.7 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | INT | 5.4 | 3.4 to 7.4 | 0.4 to 10.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 4.7 | 2.8 to 6.7 | 0.0 to 9.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
Melbourne
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 28.4 | 24.5 to 32.4 | 18.7 to 38.2 | 99% | 94% | 75% | 42% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Tyla Hanks | FPR | 23.9 | 20.3 to 27.6 | 14.9 to 33.0 | 96% | 79% | 45% | 17% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Kate Hore | C | 23.7 | 20.1 to 27.4 | 14.7 to 32.7 | 96% | 78% | 43% | 16% | 2% | - |
| Maeve Chaplin | WR | 19.9 | 16.5 to 23.3 | 11.5 to 28.3 | 85% | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jordyn S. Allen | CHB | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.2 | 9.2 to 24.9 | 65% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | WL | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.6 | 7.2 to 22.0 | 50% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 14.4 | 11.4 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.7 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tahlia Gillard | FF | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFL | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.9 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Tayla Harris | FB | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.6 to 19.5 | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | R | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.2 | 29% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 11.8 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFR | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | BPL | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | CHF | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Mia Austin | HFFL | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Lauren Clifton | INT | 8.1 | 5.7 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 13.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.7 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Jorja Livingstone | INT | 6.4 | 4.2 to 8.5 | 1.0 to 11.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |