AFLW · ROUND 8 · VICTORIA PARK
Collingwood v Melbourne
Sun 4 Oct 2026, 3:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 35
MEL to win, 92% chance
COL 8%92% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 21
HIT Actual margin 21 · 14.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 77 | 63 to 91 | 44 to 111 | 62% | 44% | 30% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Tarni White | WL | 74 | 60 to 88 | 40 to 107 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 67 | 54 to 80 | 35 to 99 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 62 | 50 to 75 | 31 to 94 | 33% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Ashley Centra | R | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 26% | 13% | 7% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 100 |
| Lucille Cronin | CHB | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Ruby Schleicher | FF | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Jordyn Allen | HBFR | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 53 | 41 to 65 | 24 to 83 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Sarah Rowe | INT | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 47 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Violet Patterson | HFFL | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | 44 | 32 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Ariana Hetherington | FB | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 95 |
| Jemma Rigoni | C | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Eliza James | HBFL | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Olivia Lewis | CHF | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7 |
| Imogen Trengove | INT | 28 | 18 to 37 | 4 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 27 | 17 to 37 | 3 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
Melbourne
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 100 | 85 to 116 | 63 to 137 | 92% | 81% | 68% | 49% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Tyla Hanks | FPR | 95 | 80 to 110 | 58 to 131 | 86% | 75% | 57% | 38% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 120 |
| Kate Hore | C | 93 | 78 to 108 | 57 to 129 | 85% | 72% | 54% | 35% | 21% | - |
| Maeve Chaplin | WR | 73 | 60 to 87 | 40 to 106 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Jordyn S. Allen | CHB | 64 | 51 to 77 | 32 to 96 | 37% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Tayla Harris | FB | 64 | 51 to 77 | 32 to 96 | 37% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | WL | 63 | 50 to 76 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 104 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 94 | 33% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 62 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 93 | 29% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FF | 60 | 48 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFR | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Alyssa Bannan | R | 53 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Maggie Mahony | CHF | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFL | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Molly O'Hehir | BPL | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Mia Austin | HFFL | 46 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 97 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 40 | 28 to 51 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Lauren Clifton | INT | 35 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Jorja Livingstone | INT | 31 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 56 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22 |