AFLW · ROUND 8 · VICTORIA PARK
Collingwood v Melbourne
Sun 4 Oct 2026, 3:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 35
MEL to win, 92% chance
COL 8%92% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 21
HIT Actual margin 21 · 14.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Collingwood
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ruby Schleicher | FF | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 64% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ashley Centra | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 39% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Eliza James | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Lewis | CHF | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brittany Bonnici | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Carly Remmos | HFFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jemma Rigoni | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HFFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Amber Schutte | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tarni White | WL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Melbourne
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Hore | C | 1.5 | 1.0 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 100% | 39% | 20% | 11% | 3% | - |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFR | 1.5 | 1.0 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 94% | 39% | 20% | 11% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Austin | HFFL | 1.4 | 0.9 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 85% | 39% | 20% | 9% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | CHF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 64% | 25% | 12% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tayla Harris | FB | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 64% | 25% | 12% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | WL | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tyla Hanks | FPR | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 64% | 20% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 0.6 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | R | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FF | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 43% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Georgia Campbell | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordyn S. Allen | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jorja Livingstone | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Clifton | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Maeve Chaplin | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | BPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laela Ebert | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |