AFLW · ROUND 8 · HENSON PARK
GWS GIANTS v Essendon
Sat 3 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ESS by 6
ESS to win, 60% chance
GWS 40%60% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ESS by 8
HIT Actual margin 8 · 2.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyce Parker | C | 26.1 | 22.2 to 29.9 | 16.7 to 35.4 | 97% | 88% | 61% | 27% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 22.0 | 18.4 to 25.5 | 13.2 to 30.7 | 92% | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | HBFR | 19.5 | 16.2 to 22.9 | 11.2 to 27.9 | 82% | 46% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 18.2 | 15.0 to 21.5 | 10.2 to 26.3 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 52% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | HFFL | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.4 | 40% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 11.8 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Emily Pease | INT | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Grace Kos | R | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHF | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Mikayla Pauga | FPR | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.1 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 9.6 | 7.0 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Alicia Eva | INT | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.6 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Grace Martin | INT | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.6 | 2.4 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Daisy Walker | CHB | 8.0 | 5.7 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Georgia Clark | WR | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.9 to 13.2 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.9 to 13.2 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
Essendon
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Prespakis | C | 28.0 | 24.0 to 31.9 | 18.3 to 37.6 | 98% | 92% | 72% | 40% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 35.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 20.4 | 17.0 to 23.9 | 12.0 to 28.9 | 87% | 56% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 16.0 | 12.9 to 19.1 | 8.4 to 23.7 | 61% | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 14.9 | 11.9 to 18.0 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 52% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Georgia Gee | WR | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | R | 14.3 | 11.3 to 17.3 | 7.0 to 21.6 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Mia Busch | HFFL | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.9 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Georgia Clarke | INT | 12.2 | 9.4 to 15.0 | 5.4 to 19.1 | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFR | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Chloe Adams | FPR | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Grace Belloni | HFFR | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | HBFL | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.7 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Holly Ridewood | CHB | 10.9 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Matilda Dyke | BPL | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | WL | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Emily Gough | FF | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Madison Ibrahim | INT | 6.0 | 3.9 to 8.2 | 0.8 to 11.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |