AFLW · ROUND 8 · HENSON PARK
GWS GIANTS v Essendon
Sat 3 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ESS by 6
ESS to win, 60% chance
GWS 40%60% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ESS by 8
HIT Actual margin 8 · 2.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyce Parker | C | 98 | 83 to 114 | 62 to 136 | 90% | 80% | 64% | 46% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 84 | 69 to 98 | 49 to 118 | 74% | 56% | 35% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | HBFR | 69 | 56 to 82 | 36 to 101 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 68 | 54 to 81 | 36 to 100 | 43% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | HFFL | 57 | 44 to 70 | 27 to 87 | 26% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 57 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 47 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Grace Kos | R | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHF | 46 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Mikayla Pauga | FPR | 45 | 33 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Emily Pease | INT | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Alicia Eva | INT | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Daisy Walker | CHB | 38 | 27 to 49 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Grace Martin | INT | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 36 | 26 to 47 | 10 to 63 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Georgia Clark | WR | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
Essendon
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Prespakis | C | 99 | 84 to 114 | 62 to 136 | 91% | 80% | 66% | 47% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 130 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 78 | 64 to 93 | 44 to 112 | 64% | 46% | 31% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 71 | 57 to 84 | 38 to 104 | 51% | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 69 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 101 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 66 | 53 to 79 | 34 to 98 | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Stephanie Cain | R | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Mia Busch | HFFL | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Georgia Gee | WR | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Georgia Clarke | INT | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19 |
| Chloe Adams | FPR | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Holly Ridewood | CHB | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 75 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10 |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFR | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | HBFL | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Grace Belloni | HFFR | 46 | 34 to 57 | 18 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 15 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 43 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Maggie MacLachlan | WL | 40 | 29 to 52 | 13 to 67 | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Matilda Dyke | BPL | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Madison Ibrahim | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |