AFLW · ROUND 8 · HENSON PARK
GWS GIANTS v Essendon
Sat 3 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ESS by 6
ESS to win, 60% chance
GWS 40%60% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ESS by 8
HIT Actual margin 8 · 2.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarni Evans | FF | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 83% | 30% | 15% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 47% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 46% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHF | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 64% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mikayla Pauga | FPR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alicia Eva | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 43% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alyce Parker | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Martin | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emily Pease | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Clark | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Grace Kos | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daisy Walker | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Essendon
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 69% | 28% | 14% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emily Gough | FF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 64% | 25% | 12% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Grace Belloni | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chloe Adams | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Georgia Gee | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mia Busch | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | - |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Stephanie Cain | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Georgia Clarke | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Ibrahim | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |