AFLW · ROUND 8 · HENSON PARK
GWS GIANTS v Essendon
Sat 3 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ESS by 6
ESS to win, 60% chance
GWS 40%60% ESS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ESS by 8
HIT Actual margin 8 · 2.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
GWS GIANTS
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alyce Parker | C | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.4 | 1.6 to 9.6 | 85% | 74% | 62% | 49% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Rebecca Beeson | RR | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 9.0 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 39% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Grace Kos | R | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 55% | 42% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Madison Brazendale | WL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Cambridge McCormick | HBFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 14% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eilish O'Dowd | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 14% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Daisy Walker | CHB | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tarni Evans | FF | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 48% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tilly Lucas-Rodd | HBFR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 47% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mikayla Pauga | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 45% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Yasmeen Janschek | RK | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 62% | 46% | 24% | 13% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Alicia Eva | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 22% | 10% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sara Howley | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 46% | 25% | 11% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Georgia Clark | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 30% | 15% | 8% | 3% | - |
| Poppy Boltz | FB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 3% | - |
| Caitlin Fletcher | BPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Garnett | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Emily Pease | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Grace Martin | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jessica Doyle | CHF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isabel Huntington | INT | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Essendon
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.9 | 1.9 to 10.1 | 88% | 78% | 68% | 53% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | RR | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | R | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 77% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 7.9 | 77% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Chloe Adams | FPR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 68% | 49% | 38% | 24% | 14% | - |
| Holly Ridewood | CHB | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.6 to 7.2 | 68% | 50% | 38% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mia Busch | HFFL | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Bess Keaney | INT | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 10% | 5% | - |
| Grace Belloni | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 46% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | CHF | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 49% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Gee | WR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 18% | 7% | 5% | 4% | - |
| Alexandra Morcom | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Emily Gough | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Madison Ibrahim | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | - |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | - |
| Georgia Clarke | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | BPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sophie Van De Heuvel | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |