AFLW · ROUND 8 · ARDEN STREET OVAL
North Melbourne v Sydney Swans
Sun 4 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
NM by 38
NM to win, 93% chance
NM 93%7% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 55
HIT Actual margin 55 · 17.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ash Riddell | RR | 29.9 | 25.9 to 34.0 | 20.0 to 39.9 | 99% | 96% | 82% | 53% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 29.0 | 25.0 to 33.0 | 19.1 to 38.8 | 99% | 95% | 78% | 46% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 32.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | C | 22.7 | 19.1 to 26.2 | 13.8 to 31.5 | 94% | 72% | 36% | 11% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 19.7 | 16.3 to 23.1 | 11.4 to 28.1 | 84% | 51% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 16.6 | 13.5 to 19.8 | 8.9 to 24.4 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 14.5 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 48% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | FPR | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.4 to 20.7 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Tessa Boyd | BPL | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.1 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Claire Mahony | HBFL | 13.1 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 12.7 | 9.8 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 12.3 | 9.5 to 15.1 | 5.4 to 19.1 | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 12.2 | 9.4 to 15.0 | 5.4 to 19.1 | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Abby Favell | WL | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.2 | 2.8 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner | INT | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Emma King | INT | 7.1 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
Sydney Swans
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | INT | 21.4 | 17.9 to 24.9 | 12.7 to 30.0 | 90% | 63% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 19.9 | 16.5 to 23.2 | 11.5 to 28.2 | 85% | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 19.1 | 15.8 to 22.5 | 10.9 to 27.4 | 80% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Tanya Kennedy | RR | 18.1 | 14.8 to 21.4 | 10.0 to 26.1 | 74% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | C | 14.7 | 11.7 to 17.7 | 7.3 to 22.1 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 14.4 | 11.5 to 17.4 | 7.1 to 21.8 | 47% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | FF | 14.1 | 11.2 to 17.1 | 6.9 to 21.4 | 40% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 10.7 | 8.0 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | FB | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 3.9 to 16.8 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | CHF | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Taylor Smith | FPR | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | HBFR | 8.0 | 5.7 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jas Grierson | INT | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 7.2 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | HFFL | 7.2 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 7.1 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFR | 7.0 | 4.7 to 9.2 | 1.4 to 12.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 6.2 | 4.1 to 8.3 | 0.9 to 11.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.9 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |