AFLW · ROUND 8 · ARDEN STREET OVAL
North Melbourne v Sydney Swans
Sun 4 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
NM by 38
NM to win, 93% chance
NM 93%7% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 55
HIT Actual margin 55 · 17.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Garner | R | 110 | 94 to 126 | 72 to 149 | 97% | 91% | 80% | 67% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 108 | 93 to 124 | 70 to 147 | 96% | 89% | 79% | 64% | 46% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Eilish Sheerin | C | 88 | 73 to 102 | 52 to 123 | 79% | 63% | 44% | 28% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 36 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 72 | 58 to 86 | 39 to 105 | 54% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 68 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 100 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 63 | 50 to 76 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 96 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 60 | 47 to 72 | 29 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 57 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 27% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 54 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 84 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Jenna Bruton | FPR | 52 | 40 to 64 | 23 to 82 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 49 | 38 to 61 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Claire Mahony | HBFL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 48 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Tessa Boyd | BPL | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Abby Favell | WL | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Emma King | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner | INT | 32 | 22 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
Sydney Swans
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | INT | 84 | 69 to 98 | 49 to 119 | 75% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 115 |
| Tanya Kennedy | RR | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 64% | 46% | 31% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Montana Ham | R | 77 | 63 to 91 | 43 to 111 | 61% | 43% | 29% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 75 | 61 to 89 | 42 to 109 | 59% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 71 | 57 to 85 | 38 to 104 | 51% | 34% | 17% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 3 |
| Chloe Molloy | FF | 65 | 52 to 78 | 33 to 97 | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Lucy McEvoy | C | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 94 | 33% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Taylor Smith | FPR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | CHF | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 46 | 34 to 57 | 18 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 46 | 34 to 57 | 18 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Lara Hausegger | FB | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Paris McCarthy | HFFL | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFR | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | HBFR | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 29 |
| Jas Grierson | INT | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Maddie Quinn | INT | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9 |