AFLW · ROUND 8 · ARDEN STREET OVAL
North Melbourne v Sydney Swans
Sun 4 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
NM by 38
NM to win, 93% chance
NM 93%7% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 55
HIT Actual margin 55 · 17.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 1.2 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 73% | 30% | 15% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 64% | 25% | 12% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 52% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 0.6 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 17% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 57% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | C | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 46% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emma King | INT | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 0.5 | 0.3 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | FPR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Tess Craven | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Abby Favell | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 24% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Claire Mahony | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tessa Boyd | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Sydney Swans
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Smith | FPR | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 40% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | CHF | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | FF | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 25% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Gardiner | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tanya Kennedy | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jas Grierson | INT | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Julie O'Sullivan | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |