AFLW · ROUND 8 · ARDEN STREET OVAL
North Melbourne v Sydney Swans
Sun 4 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
NM by 38
NM to win, 93% chance
NM 93%7% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 55
HIT Actual margin 55 · 17.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.0 to 6.9 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 14% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 54% | 37% | 23% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 46% | 24% | 16% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Claire Mahony | HBFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | - |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 39% | 23% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 39% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tessa Boyd | BPL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 16% | 6% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 16% | 6% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 24% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emma King | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 3% | 1% | - |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | C | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 17% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Abby Favell | WL | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner | INT | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Sydney Swans
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ally Morphett | RK | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 7.0 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 15% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | FF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 46% | 35% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 37% | 20% | 10% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Taylor Smith | FPR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 37% | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 23% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | C | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 23% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 18% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | CHF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 15% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jas Grierson | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - |
| Laura Gardiner | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | HBFR | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 12% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tanya Kennedy | RR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |