AFLW · ROUND 8 · ARDEN STREET OVAL
North Melbourne v Sydney Swans
Sun 4 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
NM by 38
NM to win, 93% chance
NM 93%7% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 55
HIT Actual margin 55 · 17.4 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eilish Sheerin | C | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.4 | 2.2 to 10.7 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 49% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 85% | 73% | 56% | 42% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Vikki Wall | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 6.9 | 69% | 49% | 32% | 16% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 41% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | FPR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 44% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Abby Favell | WL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | - |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 32% | 16% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 49% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kristie-Lee Weston-Turner | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | - |
| Blaithin Bogue | CHF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 27% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Claire Mahony | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | - |
| Tessa Boyd | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | CHB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emma King | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% | - |
Sydney Swans
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanya Kennedy | RR | 7.0 | 4.9 to 9.0 | 2.5 to 11.4 | 94% | 85% | 75% | 65% | 53% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Laura Gardiner | INT | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 85% | 73% | 56% | 42% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 4.8 | 3.2 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 78% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | C | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 56% | 44% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 71% | 55% | 40% | 26% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | HFFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 42% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | FF | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 48% | 27% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Taylor Smith | FPR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | HBFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 40% | 24% | 10% | 5% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | FB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 49% | 29% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lulu Pullar | WL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 35% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emma Juneja | WR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jas Grierson | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | - |