AFLW · ROUND 8 · ALBERTON OVAL
Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows
Sat 3 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ADE by 17
ADE to win, 77% chance
PA 23%77% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 14
MISS Actual margin 14 · 31.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 21.9 | 18.3 to 25.4 | 13.1 to 30.6 | 92% | 67% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | RR | 19.3 | 15.9 to 22.6 | 11.0 to 27.5 | 81% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 18.8 | 15.5 to 22.2 | 10.7 to 27.0 | 78% | 40% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Maria Moloney | R | 15.4 | 12.3 to 18.4 | 7.9 to 22.9 | 55% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | HBFR | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Shineah Goody | WL | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.1 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Sophie Eaton | WR | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | INT | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Cheyenne Hammond | HBFL | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | CHB | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | CHF | 8.1 | 5.7 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 13.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Piper Window | HFFR | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Emily Elkington | HFFL | 7.9 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Gemma Houghton | INT | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Julia Teakle | FF | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lucy Boyd | INT | 6.5 | 4.4 to 8.7 | 1.2 to 11.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Grace Parsons | INT | 5.5 | 3.4 to 7.5 | 0.4 to 10.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
Adelaide Crows
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 26.9 | 23.0 to 30.7 | 17.3 to 36.4 | 98% | 90% | 65% | 32% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 21.5 | 18.0 to 25.0 | 12.8 to 30.1 | 91% | 64% | 27% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 20.5 | 17.0 to 23.9 | 12.0 to 28.9 | 88% | 57% | 22% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 19.2 | 15.8 to 22.5 | 10.9 to 27.4 | 80% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.4 to 23.7 | 61% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 15.6 | 12.6 to 18.7 | 8.1 to 23.2 | 58% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 15.0 | 12.0 to 18.0 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 52% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 11.8 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 9.8 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.1 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.0 | 2.0 to 13.4 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 6.8 | 4.6 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 5.9 | 3.8 to 8.0 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |