AFLW · ROUND 8 · ALBERTON OVAL
Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows
Sat 3 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ADE by 17
ADE to win, 77% chance
PA 23%77% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 14
MISS Actual margin 14 · 31.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 94 | 79 to 109 | 58 to 130 | 86% | 74% | 56% | 37% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 86 | 72 to 101 | 51 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 41% | 26% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | RR | 81 | 66 to 95 | 46 to 115 | 70% | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Maria Moloney | R | 70 | 57 to 84 | 38 to 103 | 50% | 33% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Shineah Goody | WL | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Molly Brooksby | HBFR | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 53 | 41 to 65 | 23 to 83 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Sophie Eaton | WR | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 44 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Katelyn Pope | INT | 44 | 32 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Emily Elkington | HFFL | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Piper Window | HFFR | 40 | 28 to 51 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 72 |
| Ebony O'Dea | CHB | 39 | 28 to 50 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | CHF | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | HBFL | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Gemma Houghton | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Julia Teakle | FF | 35 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Lucy Boyd | INT | 30 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Grace Parsons | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
Adelaide Crows
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 116 | 100 to 132 | 77 to 156 | 98% | 94% | 86% | 76% | 59% | inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 80 | 66 to 94 | 46 to 114 | 68% | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 76 | 62 to 89 | 42 to 109 | 59% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 73 | 60 to 87 | 40 to 106 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 73 | 59 to 87 | 40 to 106 | 55% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 60 | 48 to 73 | 30 to 91 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 57 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 27% | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 47 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 43 | 32 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 42 | 31 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 35 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 31 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 29 |