AFLW · ROUND 8 · ALBERTON OVAL
Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows
Sat 3 Oct 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
ADE by 17
ADE to win, 77% chance
PA 23%77% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 14
MISS Actual margin 14 · 31.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Projected lineup. Where a team is marked PROJECTED, the players shown are that team's side from its last completed match. They are a guess at selection, not a named team. They are replaced once the club names its side.
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemma Houghton | INT | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 57% | 20% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Julia Teakle | FF | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 54% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emily Elkington | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | CHF | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Piper Window | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Shineah Goody | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Grace Parsons | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Lucy Boyd | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Maria Moloney | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Eaton | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Adelaide Crows
PROJECTED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 64% | 23% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| India Rasheed | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 15% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | FPR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 46% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 21% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy Waye | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |